Type of Document Master's Thesis Author Heimbigner, Stephen Matthew Author's Email Address stephen_heimbigner@msn.com URN etd-07252007-234503 Title Implications in using Monte Carlo Simulation in Predicting Cardiovascular Risk Factors among Overweight Children and Adolescents Degree MPH Department Public Health Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title Russ Toal Committee Chair Dr. Michael Eriksen Committee Member Dr. Valerie Hepburn Committee Member Keywords
- BMI
- probability
- Monte Carlo
- children
- obesity
- simulation
- modeling
- overweight
- weight
- adolescents
- public health
Date of Defense 2007-07-17 Availability unrestricted Abstract The prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents has increased considerably over the last few decades. As a result, increasing numbers of American children are developing multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hepatic steatosis.
This thesis examines the use of Monte Carlo computer simulation for understanding risk factors associated with childhood overweight. A computer model is presented for predicting cardiovascular risk factors among overweight children and adolescents based on BMI levels.
The computer model utilizes probabilities from the 1999 Bogalusa Heart Study authored by David S. Freedman, William H. Dietz, Sathanur R. Srinivasan and Gerald S. Berenson. The thesis examines strengths, weaknesses and opportunities associated with the developed model. Utilizing this approach, organizations can insert their own probabilities and customized algorithms for predicting future events.
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